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No more anonymous post at this site
Well, I suppose sooner or later it will come to this. Spamming at this site by anonymous posters basically forces my hand. I have no time for this sort of nonsense so I'm afraid you'll need to sign up if you want to post a comment. It's not my preference for sure, but there's nothing else I can do.
Posted by Ba on Sunday 30 April 2006 - 00:05:03
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Will history repeat itself?
If the results of election polls hold up, we'll be looking at a change of federal government in Canada on January 23. Opposition Leader Stephen Harper is certainly sounding like a prime minister. Is he scary? I don't think so. But I also think that everything a prime minister has ever said publicly in his/her adult life is relevant. More importantly, I don't believe a person could change his/her right wing conservative ideology within a few years, never mind a few months. Harper appears to have shifted his views to moderate conservatism and taken his party to the centre. I believe it's more about how he has "packaged" himself in front of Canadians. He is a very different leader from the 2004 election. Outside of Alberta (where the Conservatives can run with a dog as leader and still win), a truly "spoken like a Conservative" political leader is a hard sell to most Canadians.
Well, the federal Liberals have nothing but themselves to blame for the situation that they're in. Unfortunately for Paul Martin, he's paying the price. There's little doubt that short of winning a majority (which is about as likely as the return of Elvis), Martin is history after the election.
So, looking ahead, what can we predict? Historically, for every year they stay in power, the Conservatives (or formerly Progressive Conservatives) spend 4 years in opposition. If by uniting the right (PC and formerly Reform/Canadian Alliance) it changes that trend, this country's political landscape has certainly shifted. Somehow I don't think it has. Here are some possible scenarios:
Scenario A
The Conservatives win a majority or just under 155 seats to make it unlikely that the opposition parties will bring down the government any time soon. Paul Martin resigns. We'll be looking at 4 years of a Conservative government. During that time, Harper shows his true colours that Canadians don't have an appetite for. An election will be held in 2010 (ouch!). The Liberals with a younger, stronger leader and the scandal behind them will win a majority. They will govern for another 12 years.
Scenario B
The Conservatives win a majority. Paul Martin resigns. We'll be looking at 4 years of a Conservative government. During that time, Harper shows that he has truly changed his ideology to be more moderate like most Canadians. The economy is strong and we're considered good friends of the United States again. An election will be held in 2010, and Harper wins back-to-back majority (remember Brian Mulroney?). It takes the Liberals 8 years to rid themselves of their stinking, scandalous image. By the time an election is held in 2014, the deficit is running high. The Liberals with a younger, stronger leader will win a majority. They will govern for another 12 years.
Scenario C
The Conservatives win a minority. Paul Martin resigns. The Conservatives, skating on thin ice, can't keep the promises they've made and they fall within 2 years. The Liberals, again, with a younger, stronger leader, will win a majority in the next election in 2007 or 2008. The Liberals will govern for another 12 years.
Scenario D
The Liberals win a minority. Martin calls for a leadership review and of course, he'll be forced to step down for a younger, stronger leader. The opposition parties bring down the government, and again, we'll have another election in 2007 or 2008 when the Liberals will win a majority. They will govern for another 12 years.
Sadly, under any scenario, the NDP probably has the most to lose. Is it all that scary? No matter what happens on January 23, the sun will continue to shine. More importantly, we'll still be around.
Posted by Ba on Saturday 14 January 2006 - 19:34:25
Canadian Politics
With the holiday season upon us, the federal election campaign so far is like a non-event. Naturally people have more important things on their minds.
I've always considered Canadian politics to be incredibly simple. To win an election, you have to look good on TV and "stay in the middle". You hear politicians talk about "mainstream" Canadians. What exactly is a "mainstream" Canadian? Well, I think majority of Canadians are small "L" liberals or small "C" conservatives. It's largely reflected by the distribution of wealth in this country. In Canada, we have a small group of people who are filthy rich. And there's a larger, but still relatively small group of people who struggle daily to put food on the table. Then there's the rest of us who are in the middle, with employment income to pay rent, mortgage, etc. We work like dogs, but overall, have a relatively comfortable living. We want our governments to assist society's less fortunate people through no fault of their own, are struggling to make ends meet. We want our governments to take care of health care, education, infrastructures, etc. Now, as long as we don't have to pay a lot. So, how can it be? We want certain things we're going to have to pay for them. But that's us. We think we pay too much taxes. Sometimes we forget there are only 30+ million people to draw upon for taxpayers, to support all the things we take for granted. We are very fortunate in this country, believe it or not.
So, why in the middle? It's the only way to win an election in this country. You can almost sense that even Stephen Harper talks like a Progressive Conservative these days. I mean, didn't they remove "Progressive" from PC when they "united the right" so to speak? Ah, but you don't win an election in this country if you talk like a right wing Convervative. Liberals are, well, Liberals ... in power for too long, complacent, arrogant, and corrupted (do we honestly believe that any other party would be cleaner had they been in power for that long?). What about the New Democratic Party? The NDP is our social conscience. We need them to remind us to take care of the under privileged. Jack Layton for Prime Minister? You gotta be kidding. I've always liked Paul Martin, but I liked him better when he was just the Finance Minister. Finally, the Bloc is the Bloc. Outside Quebec, I'm not sure if it really matters all that much. Of course, those of us outside Quebec may think (perhaps naively) that Liberals in Quebec are our defenders of national unity. Do we really have a solid leader with a clear vision of Canada's future and can connect with "mainstream" Canadians? I think we'll have to wait for one to emerge. My guess is, after the election, either Stephen Harper or Paul Martin, or both, will be gone. Harper may survive a bit longer if he can at least win a minority.
Politicians do what they have to do to win an election. And they wonder why the voters are cranky or don't seem to care. It seems that minority federal governments may be the way to go for a while. It can't be all that bad.
Posted by Ba on Thursday 29 December 2005 - 13:10:08
CHFI Welcomes Mike Cooper!
Well, what did I tell you? As expected, Mike Cooper has moved up the dial from 97.3 EZRock to join Erin Davis morning show on 98.1 CHFI. I think CHFI has learned their lesson, and now they know good chemistry when they see it. Good for them. Mike and Erin make a really good team! Happy listening ...
Posted by Ba on Sunday 30 October 2005 - 01:46:41
My dream car
... is coming to a dealer near me. Not that it really matters 
... but the M5 is the Ultimate Driving Machine. Here's a Flash look you don't want to miss!
The question is, do I need 500 hp to drive to work? Of course I do! Well, it costs nothing to dream, right?
Posted by Ba on Saturday 10 September 2005 - 10:21:58
